Michael W. Traugott

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Research Professor, ISR; Professor of Communication Studies, LS&A; Adjunct Professor of Political Science, LS&A

Michael Traugott received his PhD in political science from the University of Michigan. His current research interests involve studies of the validity of survey responses, focused primarily on self-reported voting; and evaluations of polls used by journalists, specifically political polls.  “Traugott is past president of the American Association for Public Opinion Research and the World Association for Public Opinion Research and has served as a consultant to several media organizations on their election coverage.”

Selected Publications:

The Voter’s Guide to Election Polls, with Paul J. Lavrakas (Chatham House Press: Chatham NJ, 1996; Second edition, 2000; Third edition, 2004 release (Rowman & Littlefield: Lanham MD); Fourth edition, 2008 release (Rowman & Littlefield: Lanham MD); Republished in Spanish as Encuestas: Guia Para Electores (Siglio XXI: Mexico City, 1997).

 Handbook of Public Opinion Research, with Wolfgang Donsbach (Co-editor). (London: Sage Publications, 2008)

 “An Evaluation of the Methodology of the 2008 Pre-Election Primary Polls.” (2009). AAPOR Ad Hoc Committee on the 2008 Presidential Primary Polling.  Available at http://aapor.org/uploads/AAPOR_Rept_FINAL-Rev-4-13-09.pdf.

 “Changes in Media Polling in Recent Presidential Campaigns:  Moving from Good to “Average” at CNN.” (2009). Essay prepared at the Shorenstein Center, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.  Available at http://www.hks.harvard.edu/presspol/publications/papers/research_papers/r33_traugott.pdf.  

 “The Dynamics of Poll Performance during the 2008 Presidential Nomination Contest.”  (2009). With Christopher Wlezien.  Special Issue on the 2008 Presidential Election, Public Opinion Quarterly, vol. 73, pp.  866-894.

 “The Accuracy of Opinion Polling and Its Relation to Its Future.” 2011. Chapter prepared for Robert Y. Shapiro and Lawrence R. Jacobs (editors), The Oxford Handbook of American Public Opinion and the Media. (New York: Oxford University Press).